Pharaoh
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$141.24
217 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $127.12 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.13%
177 openings, odds method
Variance
4.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 177 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | Crown (Foil)sticker · exotic | 1 in 11 | $1,079 1,660 gems | 76.4% | 17 | 15.9 | 1.07× |
| M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 11 | $148 227 gems | 10.5% | 21 | 15.9 | 1.32× |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife | 1 in 50 | $114 176 gems | 1.8% | 6 | 3.5 | 1.69× |
| MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 33 | $50.78 78.12 gems | 1.2% | 5 | 5.3 | 0.94× |
| Sticker | FURIA (Gold) | Antwerp 2022sticker · covert | 77.0% | $16.74 25.75 gems | 10.1% | 128 | 136.3 | 0.94× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $141 | 90.00% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedexotic 9.0%covert 86.0%covert knife 2.0%restricted 3.0%best hit $1,079 (7.64x)