Pick Your Poison

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price

$94.20

145 gems

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $84.78 from 9 items

Observed RTP, 30d

121.11%

123 openings, odds method

Variance

4.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 13

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

84.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

21 openings · below min

7 days

94 openings · below min

30 days

121.11%±37.97123 openings

since tracking started

121.11%±37.97123 openings

50.5%143.0%235.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	21	142.99%±91.9	—	odds
7d	94	133.36%±43.4	—	odds
30d	123	121.11%±38.0	+1.6σ	odds
All	123	121.11%±38.0	+1.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 123 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 25	$804 1,237 gems	37.9%	7	4.9	1.42×
★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 25	$647 996 gems	30.5%	8	4.9	1.63×
★ Karambit \| Freehand (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 25	$335 515 gems	15.8%	6	4.9	1.22×
Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$145 224 gems	6.9%	2	4.9	0.41×
MAG-7 \| Counter Terrace (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$58.51 90.02 gems	2.8%	4	4.9	0.81×
Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	10.0%	$26.47 40.73 gems	3.1%	14	12.3	1.14×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Poison Dart (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	10.0%	$11.10 17.08 gems	1.3%	14	12.3	1.14×
Tec-9 \| Toxic (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$3.72 5.72 gems	0.4%	15	12.3	1.22×
Sticker \| Toxic (Foil)sticker · Legendary	50.0%	$2.11 3.25 gems	1.2%	53	61.5	0.86×

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.