Pinks
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7.23
11.13 gems
Advertised RTP
89.95%
EV $6.51 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.79%
4,239 openings, odds method
Variance
10.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 40
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,263 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Master Piece (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 133 | $176 271 gems | 20.3% | 34 | 32.0 | 1.06× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary | 1 in 133 | $150 231 gems | 17.3% | 30 | 32.0 | 0.94× |
| P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $99.52 153 gems | 15.3% | 44 | 42.6 | 1.03× |
| Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $70.40 108 gems | 21.6% | 88 | 85.3 | 1.03× |
| Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic (Well-Worn)weapon · pink | 10.0% | $5.20 8 gems | 8.0% | 401 | 426.3 | 0.94× |
| M4A1-S | Control Panel (Well-Worn)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $2.43 3.74 gems | 3.7% | 414 | 426.3 | 0.97× |
| Glock-18 | Shinobu (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon | 10.0% | $1.63 2.5 gems | 2.5% | 405 | 426.3 | 0.95× |
| AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 17.5% | $1.32 2.03 gems | 3.5% | 712 | 746.0 | 0.95× |
| UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink | 23.0% | $1.16 1.79 gems | 4.1% | 1,016 | 980.5 | 1.04× |
| Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink | 25.0% | $0.93 1.43 gems | 3.6% | 1,119 | 1065.8 | 1.05× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pinkDeca DBOL/Trenbolone$7.2311.13 gems$1.161.79 gems0.16x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.95%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $7.23 | 89.95% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 31.3%Legendary 0.8%pink 58.0%uncommon 10.0%best hit —