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Pinned Down

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$6.04
9.29 gems
Advertised RTP
89.93%
EV $5.43 from 44 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.70%
1,510 openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.3%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
87.81%±15.39196 openings
7 days
93.87%±6.261,187 openings
30 days
95.70%±5.551,510 openings
since tracking started
95.70%±5.551,510 openings
72.0%88.0%104.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 89.93% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (90.15% – 101.24%, 1,510 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h19687.81%±15.4−0.3σodds
7d1,18793.87%±6.26+1.2σodds
30d1,51095.70%±5.55+2.0σodds
All1,51095.70%±5.55+2.0σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values44 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,514 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Valeria Phoenix Pinpin · extraordinary1 in 44$28.98 44.58 gems12.1%4434.41.28×
Howl Pinpin · extraordinary1 in 44$28.29 43.52 gems11.8%3834.41.11×
Guardian Elite Pinpin · extraordinary1 in 44$19.70 30.3 gems8.2%4234.41.22×
Dust II Pinpin · extraordinary1 in 44$16.84 25.91 gems7.0%3134.40.90×
Alyx Pinpin · extraordinary1 in 44$16.74 25.75 gems7.0%3234.40.93×
Health Pinpin · remarkable1 in 44$12.64 19.45 gems5.3%3134.40.90×
Cache Pinpin · exotic1 in 44$8.70 13.39 gems3.6%4734.41.37×
Civil Protection Pinpin · extraordinary1 in 44$8.24 12.68 gems3.4%3034.40.87×
Chroma Pinpin · extraordinary1 in 44$7.89 12.14 gems3.3%4134.41.19×
Brigadier General Pinpin · extraordinary1 in 44$6.89 10.6 gems2.9%4134.41.19×
Mirage Pinpin · exotic1 in 44$4.91 7.56 gems2.1%3134.40.90×
Office Pinpin · remarkable1 in 44$4.54 6.99 gems1.9%3234.40.93×
Cobblestone Pinpin · remarkable1 in 44$4.36 6.71 gems1.8%3934.41.13×
Aces High Pinpin · exotic1 in 44$3.61 5.56 gems1.5%3134.40.90×
Bloodhound Pinpin · exotic1 in 44$3.39 5.21 gems1.4%3634.41.05×
Inferno Pinpin · exotic1 in 44$3.37 5.18 gems1.4%3034.40.87×
Nuke Pinpin · high1 in 44$3.31 5.09 gems1.4%3334.40.96×
Copper Lambda Pinpin · remarkable1 in 44$3.11 4.78 gems1.3%3634.41.05×
Vortigaunt Pinpin · exotic1 in 44$2.88 4.43 gems1.2%4034.41.16×
Sustenance! Pinpin · pink1 in 44$2.85 4.38 gems1.2%2834.40.81×
Lambda Pinpin · high1 in 44$2.77 4.26 gems1.2%3034.40.87×
Black Mesa Pinpin · high1 in 44$2.68 4.12 gems1.1%4534.41.31×
Victory Pinpin · remarkable1 in 44$2.64 4.06 gems1.1%4434.41.28×
Hydra Pinpin · exotic1 in 44$2.63 4.04 gems1.1%4134.41.19×
Phoenix Pinpin · high1 in 44$2.39 3.68 gems1.0%2234.40.64×
Headcrab Glyph Pinpin · violet1 in 44$2.25 3.46 gems0.9%2634.40.76×
Combine Helmet Pinpin · #4B69FF1 in 44$2.21 3.4 gems0.9%4334.41.25×
Overpass Pinpin · remarkable1 in 44$2.12 3.26 gems0.9%4134.41.19×
Wildfire Pinpin · Remarkable1 in 44$2.10 3.23 gems0.9%4334.41.25×
Guardian Pinpin · high1 in 44$2.03 3.13 gems0.9%3434.40.99×
Bravo Pinpin · blue1 in 44$2.03 3.12 gems0.8%2534.40.73×
CMB Pinpin · blue1 in 44$2.02 3.1 gems0.8%3234.40.93×
Train Pinpin · high1 in 44$1.97 3.03 gems0.8%3434.40.99×
Italy Pinpin · violet1 in 44$1.91 2.94 gems0.8%3534.41.02×
Welcome to the Clutch Pinpin · High Grade1 in 44$1.87 2.88 gems0.8%2834.40.81×
Militia Pinpin · violet1 in 44$1.78 2.74 gems0.7%2734.40.79×
Guardian 2 Pinpin · high1 in 44$1.76 2.71 gems0.7%3034.40.87×
Inferno 2 Pinpin · remarkable1 in 44$1.71 2.63 gems0.7%4034.41.16×
Easy Peasy Pinpin · remarkable1 in 44$1.63 2.5 gems0.7%3234.40.93×
Baggage Pinpin · blue1 in 44$1.63 2.5 gems0.7%3234.40.93×
Death Sentence Pinpin · high1 in 44$1.62 2.49 gems0.7%3734.41.08×
City 17 Pinpin · high1 in 44$1.48 2.27 gems0.6%3434.40.99×
Canals Pinpin · blue1 in 44$1.42 2.18 gems0.6%2134.40.61×
Guardian 3 Pinpin · blue1 in 42$1.29 1.98 gems0.6%2536.20.69×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Guardian 2 Pinpin · high$6.049.29 gems$1.762.71 gems0.29x
Combine Helmet Pinpin · #4B69FF$6.049.29 gems$2.213.4 gems0.37x
Phoenix Pinpin · high$6.049.29 gems$2.393.68 gems0.40x
Welcome to the Clutch Pinpin · High Grade$6.049.29 gems$1.872.88 gems0.31x
Nuke Pinpin · high$6.049.29 gems$3.315.09 gems0.55x
Howl Pinpin · extraordinarysqujsh$6.049.29 gems$28.2943.52 gems4.68x
Combine Helmet Pinpin · #4B69FF$6.049.29 gems$2.213.4 gems0.37x
Brigadier General Pinpin · extraordinary$6.049.29 gems$6.8910.6 gems1.14x
Cache Pinpin · exotic$6.049.29 gems$8.7013.39 gems1.44x
Dust II Pinpin · extraordinary$6.049.29 gems$16.8425.91 gems2.79x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.93%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC$6.0489.93%44
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 18.2%remarkable 18.2%exotic 15.9%high 20.4%pink 2.3%violet 6.8%#4B69FF 2.3%Remarkable 2.3%blue 11.5%High Grade 2.3%best hit —