Pirate
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$121.65
187 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $109.49 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.09%
72 openings, odds method
Variance
0.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 72 openings and 14.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 72 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Bowie Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · Covert | 10.0% | $405 623 gems | 37.0% | 5 | 7.2 | 0.69× |
| Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $196 302 gems | 17.9% | 8 | 7.2 | 1.11× |
| M4A4 | Daybreak (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $162 249 gems | 14.8% | 8 | 7.2 | 1.11× |
| M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $85.00 131 gems | 7.8% | 8 | 7.2 | 1.11× |
| MAG-7 | Counter Terrace (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $64.29 98.91 gems | 5.9% | 6 | 7.2 | 0.83× |
| MP9 | Dark Age (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 10.0% | $45.79 70.44 gems | 4.2% | 4 | 7.2 | 0.56× |
| MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New)weapon · covert | 20.0% | $37.63 57.89 gems | 6.9% | 18 | 14.4 | 1.25× |
| AK-47 | Predator (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 20.0% | $31.01 47.71 gems | 5.7% | 15 | 14.4 | 1.04× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $122 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 10.0%restricted 20.0%covert 30.0%mil spec 10.0%#4b69ff 10.0%industrial 20.0%best hit —