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Pirate King

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$38.99
59.99 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $35.09 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.37%
2,458 openings, odds method
Variance
14.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 44
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
94.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
94.34%±47.44253 openings
7 days
77.73%±17.711,815 openings
30 days
81.37%±15.222,458 openings
since tracking started
81.37%±15.222,458 openings
46.0%94.3%142.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h25394.34%±47.4+0.2σodds
7d1,81577.73%±17.7−1.4σodds
30d2,45881.37%±15.2−1.1σodds
All2,45881.37%±15.2−1.1σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,514 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 133$1,106 1,701 gems23.6%1818.90.95×
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 133$802 1,234 gems17.1%1818.90.95×
★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald1 in 133$757 1,165 gems16.2%1718.90.90×
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 133$666 1,025 gems14.2%1318.90.69×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 100$339 522 gems9.7%2625.11.03×
★ Bowie Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 50$220 339 gems12.6%4550.30.89×
MAC-10 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 20$21.59 33.21 gems3.1%116125.70.92×
R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 20$8.64 13.29 gems1.2%135125.71.07×
MP7 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted10.0%$3.15 4.84 gems0.9%221251.40.88×
P2000 | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff10.0%$2.18 3.36 gems0.6%246251.40.98×
AUG | Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff10.0%$0.76 1.17 gems0.2%239251.40.95×
Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · 154.0%$0.35 0.54 gems0.5%1,4201357.61.05×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$38.9959.99 gems$1,1061,701 gems28.36x
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$38.9959.99 gems$1,1061,701 gems28.36x
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$38.9959.99 gems$1,1061,701 gems28.36x
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearlliamessex26$38.9959.99 gems$1,1061,701 gems28.36x
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$38.9959.99 gems$1,1061,701 gems28.36x
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$38.9959.99 gems$1,1061,701 gems28.36x
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black PearlNami-Swan!$38.9959.99 gems$1,1061,701 gems28.36x
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$38.9959.99 gems$1,1061,701 gems28.36x
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$38.9959.99 gems$1,1061,701 gems28.36x
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$38.9959.99 gems$1,1061,701 gems28.36x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
MP7 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted$38.9959.99 gems$3.154.84 gems0.08x
R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert$38.9959.99 gems$8.6413.29 gems0.22x
MP7 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted$38.9959.99 gems$3.154.84 gems0.08x
MAC-10 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$38.9959.99 gems$21.5933.21 gems0.55x
Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · 1$38.9959.99 gems$0.350.54 gems0.01x
Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · 1TwitchBaleszko$38.9959.99 gems$0.350.54 gems0.01x
P2000 | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff$38.9959.99 gems$2.183.36 gems0.06x
Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · 1$38.9959.99 gems$0.350.54 gems0.01x
Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · 1( ͡° ᴥ ͡° )$38.9959.99 gems$0.350.54 gems0.01x
Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · 1$38.9959.99 gems$0.350.54 gems0.01x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC$38.9990.00%12
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 54.0%covert 8.0%covert knife 1.0%Covert 2.0%mil spec 5.0%restricted 10.0%#8847ff 10.0%#4b69ff 10.0%best hit $1,106 (28.36x)