Pistols Only!
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$21.68
33.36 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $19.51 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.12%
771 openings, odds method
Variance
3.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 771 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $169 260 gems | 17.3% | 15 | 15.4 | 0.97× |
| Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $131 202 gems | 20.2% | 21 | 23.1 | 0.91× |
| USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 14 | $89.55 138 gems | 32.1% | 67 | 54.0 | 1.24× |
| Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)weapon · red | 1 in 13 | $54.54 83.91 gems | 22.4% | 70 | 61.7 | 1.13× |
| Tec-9 | Titanium Bit (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $3.14 4.83 gems | 3.2% | 129 | 154.2 | 0.84× |
| Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon | 20.0% | $2.24 3.44 gems | 2.3% | 166 | 154.2 | 1.08× |
| P250 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $2.12 3.26 gems | 2.2% | 140 | 154.2 | 0.91× |
| USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical | 20.0% | $0.37 0.57 gems | 0.4% | 163 | 154.2 | 1.06× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 00:07 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertSVJ$21.6833.36 gems$169260 gems7.79x
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommonMichael Olise$21.6833.36 gems$2.243.44 gems0.10x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $21.68 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 5.0%Ancient 7.0%red 8.0%restricted 20.0%uncommon 20.0%classified 20.0%Mythical 20.0%best hit —