Pocket Knife
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$48.24
74.22 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $43.41 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
78.18%
670 openings, odds method
Variance
9.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 685 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · gold | 1 in 50 | $853 1,313 gems | 39.3% | 7 | 13.7 | 0.51× |
| ★ Nomad Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epic | 1 in 50 | $579 890 gems | 26.6% | 12 | 13.7 | 0.88× |
| ★ Nomad Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $303 466 gems | 14.0% | 25 | 13.7 | 1.82× |
| ★ Nomad Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $212 327 gems | 9.8% | 8 | 13.7 | 0.58× |
| ★ Nomad Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert knife | 1 in 50 | $145 224 gems | 6.7% | 19 | 13.7 | 1.39× |
| Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 90.0% | $1.74 2.68 gems | 3.6% | 614 | 616.5 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Factory New)weapon · restrictedcolin$48.2474.22 gems$1.742.68 gems0.04x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $48.24 | 89.99% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedgold 2.0%epic 2.0%covert 4.0%covert knife 2.0%restricted 90.0%best hit $853 (17.69x)