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Pocket Lint

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$1,524.65
2,346 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $1,372.18 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.46%
359 openings, odds method
Variance
12.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
12 openings · below min
7 days
108.10%±42.74269 openings
30 days
97.46%±37.00359 openings
since tracking started
97.46%±37.00359 openings
-0.5%171.3%343.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h12139.98%±202.4—odds
7d269108.10%±42.7+0.8σodds
30d35997.46%±37.0+0.4σodds
All35997.46%±37.0+0.4σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 359 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary1 in 100$42.3K 65,000 gems30.8%63.61.67×
Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable1 in 100$28.4K 43,701 gems20.7%33.60.84×
Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable1 in 100$16K 24,550 gems11.6%43.61.11×
Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary1 in 100$12.3K 18,925 gems9.0%33.60.84×
DreamHack 2014 Cobblestone Souvenir Packagecontainer · base1 in 50$7,553 11,620 gems11.0%37.20.42×
Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable1 in 50$4,766 7,333 gems6.9%57.20.70×
AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 50$952 1,464 gems1.4%67.20.84×
AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 20$462 710 gems1.7%1117.90.61×
AWP | Silk Tiger (Factory New)weapon · #d32ee61 in 20$358 551 gems1.3%1817.91.00×
AWP | BOOM (Factory New)weapon · classified10.0%$233 359 gems1.7%4635.91.28×
AWP | Queen's Gambit (Factory New)weapon · Ancient10.0%$127 196 gems0.9%4035.91.11×
AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert60.0%$67.60 104 gems3.0%214215.40.99×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendaryHydrarewards.com$1,5252,346 gems$42.3K65,000 gems27.71x
Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$1,5252,346 gems$42.3K65,000 gems27.71x
Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$1,5252,346 gems$42.3K65,000 gems27.71x
Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$1,5252,346 gems$42.3K65,000 gems27.71x
Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$1,5252,346 gems$42.3K65,000 gems27.71x
Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$1,5252,346 gems$42.3K65,000 gems27.71x
Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkablejurassicpeek$1,5252,346 gems$28.4K43,701 gems18.63x
Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$1,5252,346 gems$28.4K43,701 gems18.63x
Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$1,5252,346 gems$28.4K43,701 gems18.63x
Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$1,5252,346 gems$16K24,550 gems10.47x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$1,5252,346 gems$12.3K18,925 gems8.07x
AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$1,5252,346 gems$67.60104 gems0.04x
AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$1,5252,346 gems$67.60104 gems0.04x
AWP | BOOM (Factory New)weapon · classified$1,5252,346 gems$233359 gems0.15x
AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$1,5252,346 gems$67.60104 gems0.04x
AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covertHydrarewards.com$1,5252,346 gems$67.60104 gems0.04x
AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$1,5252,346 gems$67.60104 gems0.04x
AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$1,5252,346 gems$67.60104 gems0.04x
AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$1,5252,346 gems$67.60104 gems0.04x
AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$1,5252,346 gems$67.60104 gems0.04x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC$1,52590.00%12
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 2.0%remarkable 4.0%base 2.0%covert 67.0%#d32ee6 5.0%classified 10.0%Ancient 10.0%best hit $42.3K (27.71x)