Precision

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price

$231.87

357 gems

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $208.68 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

78.40%

1,333 openings, odds method

Variance

28.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 100

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

48 openings · below min

7 days

86.25%±32.001,057 openings

30 days

78.40%±28.501,333 openings

since tracking started

78.40%±28.501,333 openings

9.0%160.0%311.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	48	159.99%±150.2	—	odds
7d	1,057	86.25%±32.0	−0.2σ	odds
30d	1,333	78.40%±28.5	−0.8σ	odds
All	1,333	78.40%±28.5	−0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,353 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 200	$15.6K 23,973 gems	37.3%	2	6.8	0.30×
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary	1 in 200	$6,966 10,717 gems	16.7%	11	6.8	1.63×
Sticker \| mousesports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 100	$2,730 4,200 gems	13.1%	13	13.5	0.96×
Sticker \| compLexity Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 50	$878 1,351 gems	8.4%	30	27.1	1.11×
Sticker \| Team Dignitas \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 50	$470 723 gems	4.5%	34	27.1	1.26×
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$316 486 gems	6.1%	67	54.1	1.24×
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted	10.0%	$179 275 gems	8.6%	148	135.3	1.09×
USP-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	15.0%	$46.53 71.59 gems	3.3%	216	202.9	1.06×
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	30.0%	$11.31 17.4 gems	1.6%	368	405.9	0.91×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	35.0%	$2.30 3.54 gems	0.4%	464	473.6	0.98×

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$232357 gems$15.6K23,973 gems67.20x5d

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary$232357 gems$6,96610,717 gems30.04x13h

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendaryKick.com/Romix$232357 gems$6,96610,717 gems30.04x2d

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary$232357 gems$6,96610,717 gems30.04x3d

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary$232357 gems$6,96610,717 gems30.04x6d

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary⭕⃤ katal #brokemouse$232357 gems$6,96610,717 gems30.04x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

USP-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$232357 gems$46.5371.59 gems0.20x13h

Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted$232357 gems$179275 gems0.77x13h

SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New)weapon · covert$232357 gems$11.3117.4 gems0.05x13h

Sticker | compLexity Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$232357 gems$8781,351 gems3.79x13h

AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkBOTAIRTXonKICK Refbot,ai 50kLBs$232357 gems$2.303.54 gems0.01x13h

SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New)weapon · covert$232357 gems$11.3117.4 gems0.05x13h

USP-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$232357 gems$46.5371.59 gems0.20x13h

Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted$232357 gems$179275 gems0.77x13h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC	$232	90.00%	10

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedremarkable 3.5%legendary 0.5%high 2.0%covert 34.0%restricted 25.0%pink 35.0%best hit $15.6K (67.20x)