Presience
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$249.37
384 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $224.43 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.72%
54 openings, odds method
Variance
4.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 54 openings and 8.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 68 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Factory New)weapon · #eb4b4b | 15.0% | $1,462 2,248 gems | 97.7% | 12 | 10.2 | 1.18× |
| AUG | Sand Storm (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $36.72 56.49 gems | 1.6% | 5 | 6.8 | 0.74× |
| FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $8.09 12.44 gems | 0.4% | 10 | 6.8 | 1.47× |
| FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $6.63 10.2 gems | 0.3% | 5 | 6.8 | 0.74× |
| MP9 | Sand Scale (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $0.34 0.53 gems | 0.0% | 8 | 6.8 | 1.18× |
| SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 15.0% | $0.08 0.12 gems | 0.0% | 11 | 10.2 | 1.08× |
| Nova | Sand Dune (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 15.0% | $0.07 0.11 gems | 0.0% | 9 | 10.2 | 0.88× |
| P90 | Sand Spray (Minimal Wear)weapon · Consumer Grade | 15.0% | $0.01 0.02 gems | 0.0% | 8 | 10.2 | 0.78× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $249 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#eb4b4b 15.0%restricted 10.0%classified 20.0%mil spec 10.0%consumer 30.0%Consumer Grade 15.0%best hit $1,462 (5.86x)