Prism
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$68.16
105 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $61.34 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.04%
2,788 openings, odds method
Variance
36.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
94.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,870 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby | 1 in 667 | $7,085 10,900 gems | 17.3% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.70× |
| Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable | 1 in 667 | $6,496 9,993 gems | 15.9% | 5 | 4.3 | 1.16× |
| AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 333 | $2,256 3,472 gems | 11.0% | 5 | 8.6 | 0.58× |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 250 | $2,127 3,272 gems | 13.9% | 11 | 11.5 | 0.96× |
| ★ Bayonet | Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $162 250 gems | 13.2% | 145 | 143.5 | 1.01× |
| Souvenir MP7 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 25.0% | $50.47 77.64 gems | 20.6% | 713 | 717.5 | 0.99× |
| Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Factory New)weapon · classified | 69.0% | $7.18 11.05 gems | 8.1% | 1,988 | 1980.3 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$68.16105 gems$6,4969,993 gems95.30x
Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$68.16105 gems$6,4969,993 gems95.30x
Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$68.16105 gems$6,4969,993 gems95.30x
Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkableizaivars$68.16105 gems$6,4969,993 gems95.30x
Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$68.16105 gems$6,4969,993 gems95.30x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir MP7 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$68.16105 gems$50.4777.64 gems0.74x
Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Factory New)weapon · classifiedFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$68.16105 gems$7.1811.05 gems0.11x
Souvenir MP7 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$68.16105 gems$50.4777.64 gems0.74x
Souvenir MP7 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec GradeBolpyFR$68.16105 gems$50.4777.64 gems0.74x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $68.16 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 5.5%remarkable 0.1%extraordinary 0.4%Mil Spec Grade 25.0%classified 69.0%best hit $7,085 (103.9x)