Prisoner
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$20.84
32.06 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $18.75 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.61%
534 openings, odds method
Variance
1.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
55.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 537 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $97.49 150 gems | 26.0% | 29 | 26.8 | 1.08× |
| P90 | Cold Blooded (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $35.19 54.14 gems | 18.8% | 54 | 53.7 | 1.01× |
| Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · violet | 15.0% | $28.83 44.36 gems | 23.1% | 91 | 80.5 | 1.13× |
| UMP-45 | Crime Scene (Factory New)weapon · violet | 15.0% | $22.09 33.99 gems | 17.7% | 83 | 80.5 | 1.03× |
| P250 | Cartel (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $12.19 18.76 gems | 3.3% | 28 | 26.8 | 1.04× |
| MAG-7 | Justice (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $6.20 9.54 gems | 1.7% | 29 | 26.8 | 1.08× |
| MP7 | Orange Peel (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 45.0% | $4.00 6.15 gems | 9.6% | 223 | 241.7 | 0.92× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $20.84 | 89.98% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 5.0%classified 20.0%violet 30.0%industrial 45.0%best hit —