Prodigy Case
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$122.09
188 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $109.88 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.13%
558 openings, odds method
Variance
33.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 22
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 558 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted$122188 gems$9351,439 gems7.66x
Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted$122188 gems$9351,439 gems7.66x
Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted$122188 gems$9351,439 gems7.66x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $122 | 90.00% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%remarkable 0.1%covert 11.3%contraband 0.7%Restricted 0.5%classified 3.0%rare 5.0%restricted 0.5%Industrial Grade 35.0%mil spec 44.0%best hit $3,807 (31.18x)