Prodigy-Extreme
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1,635.20
2,516 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $1,471.67 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.61%
30 openings, odds method
Variance
6.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 30 openings and 1.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary | 1 in 400 | $35.3K 54,290 gems | 6.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary | 1 in 133 | $34.1K 52,500 gems | 17.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary | 1 in 40 | $15.7K 24,100 gems | 26.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| AWP | Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $6,003 9,235 gems | 10.2% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary | 10.0% | $3,135 4,823 gems | 21.3% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× |
| AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 20.0% | $1,336 2,055 gems | 18.2% | 7 | 6.0 | 1.17× |
| P250 | Digital Architect (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 32.0% | $15.50 23.85 gems | 0.3% | 6 | 9.6 | 0.63× |
| Sticker | Drug War Veteransticker · High Grade | 32.0% | $0.77 1.18 gems | 0.0% | 12 | 9.6 | 1.25× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$1,6352,516 gems$15.7K24,100 gems9.58x
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Field-Tested)gloves · legendaryPalm Beach Pete$1,6352,516 gems$3,1354,823 gems1.92x
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary$1,6352,516 gems$3,1354,823 gems1.92x
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary$1,6352,516 gems$3,1354,823 gems1.92x
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$1,6352,516 gems$15.7K24,100 gems9.58x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $1,635 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 13.5%covert 22.5%restricted 32.0%High Grade 32.0%best hit $15.7K (9.58x)