Profit Abuser
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.50
2.31 gems
Advertised RTP
89.91%
EV $1.35 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.09%
14.2K openings, odds method
Variance
1.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.4K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $4.69 7.22 gems | 34.8% | 1,463 | 1441.4 | 1.01× |
| StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff | 10.0% | $3.11 4.79 gems | 23.1% | 1,472 | 1441.4 | 1.02× |
| P250 | Red Rock (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $3.09 4.75 gems | 22.9% | 1,443 | 1441.4 | 1.00× |
| Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $2.49 3.83 gems | 18.4% | 1,465 | 1441.4 | 1.02× |
| MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec | 60.0% | $0.02 0.03 gems | 0.9% | 8,571 | 8648.5 | 0.99× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$1.502.31 gems$4.697.22 gems3.13x
Souvenir MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restrictedGuigz$1.502.31 gems$4.697.22 gems3.13x
Souvenir MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$1.502.31 gems$4.697.22 gems3.13x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $1.50 | 89.91% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 30.0%#8847ff 10.0%milspec 60.0%best hit —