Profit Farm
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.13
0.2 gems
Advertised RTP
87.86%
EV $0.11 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.78%
29.1K openings, odds method
Variance
421.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 1,111
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 29.5K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | B the Monster (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare | 1 in 2,500 | $75.06 115 gems | 26.3% | 14 | 11.8 | 1.18× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $73.01 112 gems | 32.0% | 11 | 14.8 | 0.74× |
| AWP | LongDog (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 2,000 | $66.56 102 gems | 29.1% | 14 | 14.8 | 0.95× |
| MP5-SD | Neon Squeezer (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9 | 20.0% | $0.03 0.04 gems | 4.6% | 5,718 | 5907.6 | 0.97× |
| Five-SeveN | Scumbria (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec | 30.9% | $0.02 0.03 gems | 5.3% | 9,228 | 9115.4 | 1.01× |
| Tec-9 | Army Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 49.0% | <$0.01 0.01 gems | 2.8% | 14,553 | 14473.6 | 1.01× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.86%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $0.13 | 87.86% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrare 0.0%covert 0.1%Ancient 0.1%#5e98d9 20.0%mil spec 30.9%consumer 49.0%best hit $75.06 (577.3x)