Protagonist
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$144.74
223 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $130.26 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
107.38%
316 openings, odds method
Variance
5.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 316 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $2,535 3,900 gems | 19.5% | 6 | 3.2 | 1.90× |
| MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $1,300 2,000 gems | 29.9% | 10 | 9.5 | 1.05× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 17 | $623 958 gems | 28.7% | 18 | 19.0 | 0.95× |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 17 | $161 247 gems | 7.4% | 16 | 19.0 | 0.84× |
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Player Two (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 17 | $116 179 gems | 5.4% | 30 | 19.0 | 1.58× |
| StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient | 15.0% | $42.85 65.92 gems | 4.9% | 48 | 47.4 | 1.01× |
| Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $18.92 29.11 gems | 2.2% | 47 | 47.4 | 0.99× |
| StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 15.0% | $11.65 17.92 gems | 1.3% | 39 | 47.4 | 0.82× |
| MP9 | Mount Fuji (Factory New)weapon · violet | 15.0% | $5.52 8.49 gems | 0.6% | 36 | 47.4 | 0.76× |
| MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 18.0% | $0.46 0.71 gems | 0.1% | 66 | 56.9 | 1.16× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$145223 gems$11.6517.92 gems0.08x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $145 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 19.0%classified 33.0%Ancient 15.0%violet 33.0%best hit $2,535 (17.51x)