Price
$4.76
7.32 gems
Advertised RTP
89.89%
EV $4.28 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.01%
17.3K openings, odds method
Variance
32.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
94.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 17.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covertAmad2⚡♛♞fn$4.767.32 gems$554852 gems116.4x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.89%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $4.76 | 89.89% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.3%Covert 0.2%epic 0.2%covert knife 0.3%extraordinary 0.5%gold 1.0%classified 1.5%industrial 2.0%gray 94.0%best hit $554 (116.4x)