Punishment

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price

$45.54

70.06 gems

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $40.98 from 9 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.10%

278 openings, odds method

Variance

2.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

85 openings · below min

7 days

85.34%±20.27240 openings

30 days

85.10%±18.84278 openings

since tracking started

85.10%±18.84278 openings

31.5%69.0%106.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	85	66.17%±34.1	—	odds
7d	240	85.34%±20.3	−0.5σ	odds
30d	278	85.10%±18.8	−0.5σ	odds
All	278	85.10%±18.8	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 278 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33	$426 656 gems	31.2%	7	8.3	0.84×
★ Classic Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 14	$101 155 gems	17.3%	16	19.5	0.82×
XM1014 \| Frost Borre (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 13	$62.30 95.85 gems	12.2%	26	22.2	1.17×
Nova \| Baroque Orange (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$56.80 87.38 gems	11.1%	23	22.2	1.03×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 13	$43.60 67.07 gems	8.5%	22	22.2	0.99×
MP9 \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$35.55 54.69 gems	2.6%	9	8.3	1.08×
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$20.79 31.99 gems	1.5%	8	8.3	0.96×
Five-SeveN \| Nitro (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 20	$13.98 21.5 gems	1.7%	18	13.9	1.29×
MP7 \| Skulls (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	55.0%	$10.40 16 gems	14.0%	149	152.9	0.97×

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Classic Knife | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert$45.5470.06 gems$101155 gems2.22x9h

StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$45.5470.06 gems$43.6067.07 gems0.96x9h

MP7 | Skulls (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue$45.5470.06 gems$10.4016 gems0.23x9h

XM1014 | Frost Borre (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec$45.5470.06 gems$62.3095.85 gems1.37x9h

Five-SeveN | Nitro (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade$45.5470.06 gems$13.9821.5 gems0.31x9h

MP9 | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$45.5470.06 gems$35.5554.69 gems0.78x9h

StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$45.5470.06 gems$43.6067.07 gems0.96x9h

MP7 | Skulls (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue$45.5470.06 gems$10.4016 gems0.23x9h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC	$45.54	90.00%	9

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 3.0%covert 10.0%mil spec 11.0%restricted 8.0%classified 8.0%Mil Spec Grade 5.0%blue 55.0%best hit —