Pure Gold
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$311.60
479 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $280.44 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
69.10%
112 openings, odds method
Variance
1.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
69.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 112 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $8,936 13,748 gems | 3.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $986 1,517 gems | 52.7% | 8 | 16.8 | 0.48× |
| ★ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)knife · epic | 15.0% | $482 741 gems | 25.8% | 20 | 16.8 | 1.19× |
| M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $182 280 gems | 6.5% | 15 | 11.2 | 1.34× |
| M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $74.42 114 gems | 4.0% | 21 | 16.8 | 1.25× |
| ★ Broken Fang Gloves | Yellow-banded (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 15.0% | $57.99 89.21 gems | 3.1% | 12 | 16.8 | 0.71× |
| StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 15.0% | $44.79 68.91 gems | 2.4% | 23 | 16.8 | 1.37× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient | 14.9% | $44.17 67.95 gems | 2.3% | 13 | 16.7 | 0.78× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$312479 gems$44.7968.91 gems0.14x
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$312479 gems$44.7968.91 gems0.14x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $312 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 55.1%epic 15.0%extraordinary 15.0%Ancient 14.9%best hit $986 (3.16x)