Purple Pack
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$80.54
124 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $72.48 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.74%
427 openings, odds method
Variance
6.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 427 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $1,438 2,212 gems | 19.8% | 6 | 4.3 | 1.41× |
| ★ Karambit | Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 50 | $888 1,367 gems | 24.5% | 8 | 8.5 | 0.94× |
| ★ Talon Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $639 982 gems | 17.6% | 8 | 8.5 | 0.94× |
| ★ Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 33 | $353 543 gems | 14.6% | 10 | 12.8 | 0.78× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · covert knife | 1 in 33 | $192 296 gems | 8.0% | 11 | 12.8 | 0.86× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 33 | $120 184 gems | 5.0% | 15 | 12.8 | 1.17× |
| FAMAS | Prime Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · violet | 1 in 33 | $38.83 59.74 gems | 1.6% | 13 | 12.8 | 1.01× |
| SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 13.0% | $16.87 25.96 gems | 3.0% | 55 | 55.5 | 0.99× |
| P250 | Vino Primo (Factory New)weapon · violet | 70.0% | $6.08 9.36 gems | 5.9% | 301 | 298.9 | 1.01× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Karambit | Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · CovertEnergetic Lion$80.54124 gems$8881,367 gems11.03x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $80.54 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.0%Covert 5.0%covert knife 3.0%sunny 3.0%violet 73.0%classified 13.0%best hit $1,438 (17.85x)