Pyramids
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1,193.94
1,837 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $1,074.54 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
38.68%
6 openings, odds method
Variance
2.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 6 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $8,936 13,748 gems | 41.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| AWP | The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $2,464 3,790 gems | 34.4% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $1,474 2,268 gems | 20.6% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 20 | $184 283 gems | 0.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $94.91 146 gems | 1.3% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $62.87 96.73 gems | 0.9% | 3 | 0.9 | — |
| AUG | Sand Storm (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $23.72 36.49 gems | 0.3% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $4.60 7.08 gems | 0.1% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covertkick.com/davnh $300 RACE$1,1941,837 gems$94.91146 gems0.08x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $1,194 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 80.0%extraordinary 5.0%restricted 15.0%best hit $2,464 (2.06x)