R8ted
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.04
6.21 gems
Advertised RTP
89.94%
EV $3.63 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.63%
3,750 openings, odds method
Variance
3.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,776 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $43.43 66.81 gems | 35.9% | 110 | 113.3 | 0.97× |
| StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 20 | $14.76 22.7 gems | 20.3% | 180 | 188.8 | 0.95× |
| R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 13 | $8.01 12.32 gems | 16.5% | 292 | 283.2 | 1.03× |
| R8 Revolver | Canal Spray (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 10.0% | $3.52 5.42 gems | 9.7% | 385 | 377.6 | 1.02× |
| R8 Revolver | Reboot (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 12.5% | $1.87 2.88 gems | 6.4% | 477 | 472.0 | 1.01× |
| R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 12.5% | $1.18 1.82 gems | 4.1% | 505 | 472.0 | 1.07× |
| R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff | 12.5% | $1.11 1.71 gems | 3.8% | 449 | 472.0 | 0.95× |
| R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 15.0% | $0.63 0.97 gems | 2.6% | 571 | 566.4 | 1.01× |
| R8 Revolver | Junk Yard (Field-Tested)weapon · blue | 22.0% | $0.10 0.15 gems | 0.6% | 807 | 830.7 | 0.97× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec GradeTTHD$4.046.21 gems$14.7622.7 gems3.66x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.94%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $4.04 | 89.94% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.0%Mil Spec Grade 5.0%classified 7.5%consumer 10.0%restricted 25.0%#8847ff 12.5%industrial 15.0%blue 22.0%best hit —