Rain Storm
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$87.05
134 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $78.35 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
115.00%
144 openings, odds method
Variance
3.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 144 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 20 | $568 874 gems | 36.3% | 10 | 7.2 | 1.39× |
| AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $354 545 gems | 45.2% | 20 | 14.4 | 1.39× |
| P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $90.92 140 gems | 11.6% | 11 | 14.4 | 0.76× |
| M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $40.13 61.74 gems | 2.6% | 4 | 7.2 | 0.56× |
| AUG | Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 20 | $13.31 20.48 gems | 0.8% | 10 | 7.2 | 1.39× |
| Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 15.0% | $10.07 15.49 gems | 1.9% | 17 | 21.6 | 0.79× |
| SSG 08 | Tropical Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5E98D9 | 25.0% | $3.37 5.19 gems | 1.1% | 39 | 36.0 | 1.08× |
| Sticker | rain | Boston 2018sticker · High Grade | 25.0% | $1.62 2.49 gems | 0.5% | 33 | 36.0 | 0.92× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryVarsityGambles$87.05134 gems$568874 gems6.53x
★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryKick/PapaGambles $20k+ Rewards$87.05134 gems$568874 gems6.53x
★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryLukii$87.05134 gems$568874 gems6.53x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $87.05 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 5.0%covert 10.0%classified 10.0%restricted 5.0%mil spec 5.0%industrial 15.0%#5E98D9 25.0%High Grade 25.0%best hit $568 (6.53x)