Rainbow Roads
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$98.84
152 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $88.95 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.91%
210 openings, odds method
Variance
4.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 216 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $1,148 1,765 gems | 25.8% | 2 | 4.3 | 0.46× |
| ★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 33 | $803 1,235 gems | 27.1% | 8 | 6.5 | 1.23× |
| ★ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 25 | $372 573 gems | 16.7% | 8 | 8.6 | 0.93× |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 17 | $171 263 gems | 11.5% | 7 | 13.0 | 0.54× |
| USP-S | Jawbreaker (Factory New)weapon · pink | 26.0% | $41.81 64.32 gems | 12.2% | 61 | 56.2 | 1.09× |
| StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff | 26.0% | $17.11 26.32 gems | 5.0% | 51 | 56.2 | 0.91× |
| Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 33.0% | $4.38 6.74 gems | 1.6% | 79 | 71.3 | 1.11× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covertSmiling Grizzly$98.84152 gems$1,1481,765 gems11.61x
Latest dropsnewest first
USP-S | Jawbreaker (Factory New)weapon · pinkFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$98.84152 gems$41.8164.32 gems0.42x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $98.84 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 15.0%pink 26.0%#8847ff 26.0%restricted 33.0%best hit $1,148 (11.61x)