Rains and Pours
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$231.85
357 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $208.66 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.93%
339 openings, odds method
Variance
14.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 385 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 33 | $5,212 8,019 gems | 74.9% | 13 | 11.5 | 1.13× |
| AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 13 | $373 574 gems | 14.3% | 34 | 30.8 | 1.10× |
| FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $159 245 gems | 7.6% | 38 | 38.5 | 0.99× |
| M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $44.92 69.11 gems | 2.2% | 38 | 38.5 | 0.99× |
| Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $7.77 11.95 gems | 0.7% | 80 | 77.0 | 1.04× |
| SSG 08 | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 24.0% | $1.22 1.87 gems | 0.1% | 89 | 92.4 | 0.96× |
| PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 25.0% | $0.86 1.33 gems | 0.1% | 93 | 96.3 | 0.97× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinaryKick.com/Romix$232357 gems$5,2128,019 gems22.48x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $232 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 3.0%covert 8.0%classified 30.0%restricted 10.0%mil spec 49.0%best hit $5,212 (22.48x)