Raw v2

A case on Clash.gg, first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$383.95
591 gems
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
123.89%
42 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
7 days
36 openings · below min
30 days
42 openings · below min
since tracking started
42 openings · below min
-0.5%135.3%271.0%

Small sample. 42 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d36134.94%±135.2—sample
30d42123.89%±116.6—sample
All42123.89%±116.6—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogClash.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert$384591 gems$8,93613,748 gems23.27x
★ Sport Gloves | Amphibiou (Factory New)gloves$384591 gems$3,8645,945 gems10.06x
AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · covert$384591 gems$1,1271,734 gems2.94x
AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · covert$384591 gems$1,1271,734 gems2.94x
Sticker | Howling Dawnsticker · contraband$384591 gems$9181,413 gems2.39x

Latest dropsnewest first

★ Sport Gloves | Amphibiou (Factory New)gloves$384591 gems$3,8645,945 gems10.06x
Sticker | Baby Medusasticker · high$384591 gems$0.180.28 gems0.00x
Sticker | Baby Medusasticker · high$384591 gems$0.180.28 gems0.00x
★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold$384591 gems$412634 gems1.07x
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert$384591 gems$78.83121 gems0.21x
Sticker | Baby Medusasticker · high$384591 gems$0.180.28 gems0.00x
★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold$384591 gems$412634 gems1.07x
Sticker | Baby Medusasticker · high$384591 gems$0.180.28 gems0.00x
Sticker | Baby Medusasticker · high$384591 gems$0.180.28 gems0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $8,936 (23.27x)