Real Debt

A case on Clash.gg, first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$16.25
25 gems
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
110.61%
276 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
48 openings · below min
7 days
276 openings · below min
30 days
276 openings · below min
since tracking started
276 openings · below min
-0.5%97.3%195.0%

Small sample. 276 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h480.20%±0.03—sample
7d276110.61%±83.6—sample
30d276110.61%±83.6—sample
All276110.61%±83.6—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogClash.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Sport Gloves | Red Racer (Factory New)gloves · #eb4b4b$16.2525 gems$1,0031,544 gems61.75x
★ Driver Gloves | Seigaiha (Factory New)gloves · legendary$16.2525 gems$6901,062 gems42.47x
★ Driver Gloves | Seigaiha (Factory New)gloves · legendary$16.2525 gems$6901,062 gems42.47x
★ Driver Gloves | Seigaiha (Factory New)gloves · legendary$16.2525 gems$6901,062 gems42.47x
★ Sport Gloves | Blaze (Factory New)gloves · legendary$16.2525 gems$6561,009 gems40.36x

Latest dropsnewest first

P90 | Freight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec$16.2525 gems$0.010.02 gems0.00x
SG 553 | Cyberforce (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$16.2525 gems$0.020.03 gems0.00x
R8 Revolver | Mauve Aside (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9$16.2525 gems$0.030.04 gems0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$16.2525 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
P90 | Freight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec$16.2525 gems$0.010.02 gems0.00x
M249 | System Lock (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade$16.2525 gems$0.040.06 gems0.00x
M249 | System Lock (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade$16.2525 gems$0.040.06 gems0.00x
SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Factory New)weapon · consumer$16.2525 gems$0.050.07 gems0.00x
R8 Revolver | Mauve Aside (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9$16.2525 gems$0.030.04 gems0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $1,003 (61.75x)