Rebel Arsenal
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$29.56
45.48 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $26.60 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
68.84%
549 openings, odds method
Variance
10.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 555 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $895 1,377 gems | 16.8% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.36× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $837 1,287 gems | 15.7% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.72× |
| StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $168 258 gems | 31.6% | 26 | 27.7 | 0.94× |
| Sawed-Off | Copper (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $72.79 112 gems | 27.4% | 51 | 55.5 | 0.92× |
| M249 | Jungle DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 10.0% | $11.17 17.19 gems | 4.2% | 62 | 55.5 | 1.12× |
| Souvenir G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Rifles | 24.0% | $2.91 4.47 gems | 2.6% | 150 | 133.2 | 1.13× |
| StatTrak™ Galil AR | Black Sand (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rare | 25.0% | $1.12 1.72 gems | 1.1% | 138 | 138.7 | 0.99× |
| StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Roadblock (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 25.0% | $0.69 1.06 gems | 0.6% | 125 | 138.8 | 0.90× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertYuanPi$29.5645.48 gems$8371,287 gems28.30x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$29.5645.48 gems$8371,287 gems28.30x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Black Sand (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rare$29.5645.48 gems$1.121.72 gems0.04x
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Black Sand (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · RareSVJ$29.5645.48 gems$1.121.72 gems0.04x
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Roadblock (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$29.5645.48 gems$0.691.06 gems0.02x
Souvenir G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · RiflesSVJ$29.5645.48 gems$2.914.47 gems0.10x
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Black Sand (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rare$29.5645.48 gems$1.121.72 gems0.04x
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Roadblock (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$29.5645.48 gems$0.691.06 gems0.02x
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Black Sand (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rare$29.5645.48 gems$1.121.72 gems0.04x
Souvenir G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · RiflesKick/HarryJZ$29.5645.48 gems$2.914.47 gems0.10x
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Roadblock (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$29.5645.48 gems$0.691.06 gems0.02x
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Roadblock (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$29.5645.48 gems$0.691.06 gems0.02x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $29.56 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 6.0%mil spec 10.0%consumer 10.0%Rifles 24.0%Rare 25.0%Mil Spec Grade 25.0%best hit $895 (30.29x)