REBOOT.exe

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price

$16.04

24.68 gems

Advertised RTP

89.97%

EV $14.43 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.21%

5,935 openings, odds method

Variance

68.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 143

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

46.80%±54.63875 openings

7 days

86.89%±22.845,006 openings

30 days

84.21%±20.985,935 openings

since tracking started

84.21%±20.985,935 openings

-0.5%55.0%110.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	875	46.80%±54.6	−1.5σ	odds
7d	5,006	86.89%±22.8	−0.3σ	odds
30d	5,935	84.21%±21.0	−0.5σ	odds
All	5,935	84.21%±21.0	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,035 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$3,440 5,293 gems	23.8%	5	6.0	0.83×
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 1,000	$2,167 3,334 gems	15.0%	5	6.0	0.83×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$827 1,273 gems	5.7%	4	6.0	0.66×
Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 500	$325 500 gems	4.5%	18	12.1	1.49×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$232 356 gems	3.2%	13	12.1	1.08×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 333	$107 165 gems	2.2%	13	18.1	0.72×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 100	$67.59 104 gems	4.7%	57	60.4	0.94×
P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$36.38 55.97 gems	7.6%	192	181.0	1.06×
Galil AR \| Cerberus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	10.0%	$18.92 29.11 gems	13.1%	576	603.5	0.95×
Five-SeveN \| Hot Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	15.0%	$7.77 11.96 gems	8.1%	885	905.3	0.98×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	70.0%	$2.48 3.82 gems	12.0%	4,267	4224.5	1.01×

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Hydroponic (Factory New)weapon · classifiedOta***i30$16.0424.68 gems$3,4405,293 gems214.5x1d

AK-47 | Hydroponic (Factory New)weapon · classified$16.0424.68 gems$3,4405,293 gems214.5x1d

AK-47 | Hydroponic (Factory New)weapon · classified$16.0424.68 gems$3,4405,293 gems214.5x3d

AK-47 | Hydroponic (Factory New)weapon · classifiedsmurf6$16.0424.68 gems$3,4405,293 gems214.5x6d

★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2Goofy$16.0424.68 gems$2,1673,334 gems135.1x1d

★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$16.0424.68 gems$2,1673,334 gems135.1x1d

★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2Holy$16.0424.68 gems$2,1673,334 gems135.1x3d

★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2Daim$16.0424.68 gems$2,1673,334 gems135.1x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Galil AR | Cerberus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$16.0424.68 gems$18.9229.11 gems1.18x1h

P2000 | Wicked Sick (Field-Tested)weapon · pink$16.0424.68 gems$2.483.82 gems0.15x1h

Galil AR | Cerberus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$16.0424.68 gems$18.9229.11 gems1.18x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC	$16.04	89.97%	11

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 3.3%covert 0.5%restricted 10.2%red 1.0%industrial 15.0%pink 70.0%best hit $3,440 (214.5x)