Recoil Case
A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.89
4.45 gems
Advertised RTP
89.96%
EV $2.60 from 41 items
Observed RTP, 30d
114.08%
9,079 openings, odds method
Variance
344.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 1,111
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,138 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryRiley$2.894.45 gems$1,7232,651 gems595.7x
★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$2.894.45 gems$1,7232,651 gems595.7x
★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$2.894.45 gems$1,4132,174 gems488.6x
★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryDecan$2.894.45 gems$1,4132,174 gems488.6x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.96%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $2.89 | 89.96% | 41 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.2%legendary 0.1%Extraordinary 0.0%red 0.3%covert 0.3%Legendary 1.1%classified 1.1%#d32ee6 1.1%restricted 6.4%Mythical 6.4%violet 3.2%milspec 22.8%Rare 34.3%Mil Spec 11.4%#4b69ff 11.4%best hit $1,723 (595.7x)