Recovery Case
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$27.83
42.82 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $25.05 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
104.91%
215 openings, odds method
Variance
3.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 219 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $220 339 gems | 44.0% | 15 | 11.0 | 1.37× |
| MP9 | Hydra (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $61.08 93.97 gems | 12.2% | 11 | 11.0 | 1.00× |
| Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Well-Worn)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $44.21 68.01 gems | 17.6% | 20 | 21.9 | 0.91× |
| AK-47 | Aphrodite (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient | 10.0% | $30.49 46.9 gems | 12.2% | 20 | 21.9 | 0.91× |
| FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $15.93 24.51 gems | 6.4% | 31 | 21.9 | 1.42× |
| G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $8.33 12.82 gems | 3.3% | 16 | 21.9 | 0.73× |
| MP9 | Deadly Poison (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $5.57 8.57 gems | 2.2% | 24 | 21.9 | 1.10× |
| M4A4 | Magnesium (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $2.84 4.37 gems | 1.1% | 18 | 21.9 | 0.82× |
| MP7 | Cirrus (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $1.26 1.94 gems | 0.8% | 28 | 32.9 | 0.85× |
| P90 | Neoqueen (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 15.0% | $0.31 0.48 gems | 0.2% | 36 | 32.9 | 1.10× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Factory New)weapon · classified☂️Chadur Protekciq☂$27.8342.82 gems$15.9324.51 gems0.57x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $27.83 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 40.0%Ancient 10.0%mil spec 35.0%violet 15.0%best hit —