Red Dawn
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$203.36
313 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $183.03 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.50%
95 openings, odds method
Variance
2.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 95 openings and 19.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 95 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 33 | $1,514 2,330 gems | 24.8% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.75× |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 14 | $613 943 gems | 23.4% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.05× |
| M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $546 840 gems | 29.8% | 6 | 9.5 | 0.63× |
| AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $207 319 gems | 11.3% | 8 | 9.5 | 0.84× |
| AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $62.22 95.73 gems | 3.4% | 14 | 9.5 | 1.47× |
| M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $58.50 90 gems | 3.2% | 11 | 9.5 | 1.16× |
| USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New)weapon · Ancient | 10.0% | $57.15 87.93 gems | 3.1% | 3 | 9.5 | 0.32× |
| Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted | 40.0% | $3.85 5.93 gems | 0.8% | 41 | 38.0 | 1.08× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$203313 gems$1,5142,330 gems7.45x
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$203313 gems$1,5142,330 gems7.45x
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryLiquidWater$203313 gems$1,5142,330 gems7.45x
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$203313 gems$1,5142,330 gems7.45x
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$203313 gems$1,5142,330 gems7.45x
★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red (Factory New)gloves · extraordinarytrickytrash$203313 gems$613943 gems3.01x
Latest dropsnewest first
Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedclepto holding$203313 gems$3.855.93 gems0.02x
Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedBottavious$203313 gems$3.855.93 gems0.02x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $203 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 10.0%classified 30.0%restricted 50.0%Ancient 10.0%best hit $1,514 (7.45x)