Red Tape
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$60.27
92.73 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $54.25 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.52%
1,088 openings, odds method
Variance
12.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,094 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Rifles | 1 in 400 | $2,817 4,334 gems | 13.0% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.10× |
| ★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby | 1 in 133 | $1,670 2,569 gems | 23.1% | 6 | 8.2 | 0.73× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $697 1,073 gems | 12.9% | 10 | 10.9 | 0.91× |
| AUG | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 33 | $260 400 gems | 14.4% | 45 | 32.8 | 1.37× |
| MP9 | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 20 | $148 228 gems | 13.7% | 54 | 54.7 | 0.99× |
| M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $53.89 82.9 gems | 9.9% | 113 | 109.4 | 1.03× |
| P250 | Muertos (Factory New)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $17.84 27.45 gems | 4.9% | 147 | 164.1 | 0.90× |
| Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $11.58 17.82 gems | 3.2% | 169 | 164.1 | 1.03× |
| R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 25.0% | $7.76 11.94 gems | 3.6% | 282 | 273.5 | 1.03× |
| Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 25.0% | $3.01 4.63 gems | 1.4% | 265 | 273.5 | 0.97× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Rifles$60.2792.73 gems$2,8174,334 gems46.74x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Rifles$60.2792.73 gems$2,8174,334 gems46.74x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · RiflesRayan 肖恩$60.2792.73 gems$2,8174,334 gems46.74x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$60.2792.73 gems$1,6702,569 gems27.70x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$60.2792.73 gems$1,6702,569 gems27.70x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$60.2792.73 gems$1,6702,569 gems27.70x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$60.2792.73 gems$1,6702,569 gems27.70x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$60.2792.73 gems$1,6702,569 gems27.70x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$60.2792.73 gems$1,6702,569 gems27.70x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedich hab kleine d$60.2792.73 gems$6971,073 gems11.57x
Latest dropsnewest first
R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Factory New)weapon · mil specich hab kleine d$60.2792.73 gems$7.7611.94 gems0.13x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$60.2792.73 gems$1,6702,569 gems27.70x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $60.27 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedRifles 0.3%covert 0.8%classified 16.0%mil spec 58.0%restricted 25.0%best hit $2,817 (46.74x)