Red v Blue
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4,406.28
6,779 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $3,965.61 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
138.31%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
5.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary | 1 in 20 | $34.1K 52,500 gems | 43.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary | 1 in 20 | $32.5K 50,000 gems | 41.0% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| AWP | Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $7,204 11,083 gems | 9.1% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband | 1 in 20 | $3,543 5,450 gems | 4.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $683 1,050 gems | 0.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $491 756 gems | 0.6% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| Sticker | rox (Holo) | Antwerp 2022sticker · pink | 70.0% | $54.85 84.39 gems | 1.0% | 8 | 8.4 | 0.95× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $4,406 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 10.0%covert 5.0%contraband 5.0%classified 10.0%pink 70.0%best hit $32.5K (7.38x)