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A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$9.88
15.2 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $8.89 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.49%
2,182 openings, odds method
Variance
5.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,192 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 40 | $112 173 gems | 31.6% | 57 | 54.8 | 1.04× |
| Souvenir M4A1-S | Solitude (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon | 1 in 40 | $72.15 111 gems | 20.3% | 57 | 54.8 | 1.04× |
| AWP | Sun in Leo (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 20 | $48.04 73.9 gems | 27.0% | 121 | 109.6 | 1.10× |
| Sticker | 9z Team (Holo) | Antwerp 2022sticker · #d32ce6 | 10.0% | $5.08 7.82 gems | 5.7% | 208 | 219.2 | 0.95× |
| Sticker | 9z Team (Holo) | Cologne 2026sticker · Legendary | 10.0% | $3.89 5.98 gems | 4.4% | 196 | 219.2 | 0.89× |
| Sticker | 9z Team (Gold) | Antwerp 2022sticker · covert | 10.0% | $3.09 4.76 gems | 3.5% | 239 | 219.2 | 1.09× |
| Sticker | 9z Team (Holo) | Rio 2022sticker · #d32ce6 | 20.0% | $1.92 2.95 gems | 4.3% | 459 | 438.4 | 1.05× |
| Sticker | 9z Team (Glitter) | Antwerp 2022sticker · #8847ff | 20.0% | $1.01 1.55 gems | 2.3% | 449 | 438.4 | 1.02× |
| Sticker | 9z Team (Foil) | Cologne 2026sticker · Mythical | 20.0% | $0.42 0.64 gems | 0.9% | 406 | 438.4 | 0.93× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 06:20 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | 9z Team (Foil) | Cologne 2026sticker · Mythicalrubbytuesday$9.8815.2 gems$0.420.64 gems0.04x
Sticker | 9z Team (Gold) | Antwerp 2022sticker · covertrubbytuesday$9.8815.2 gems$3.094.76 gems0.31x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $9.88 | 89.99% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 2.5%other 2.5%industrial 5.0%#d32ce6 30.0%Legendary 10.0%covert 10.0%#8847ff 20.0%Mythical 20.0%best hit —