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A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7.51
11.55 gems
Advertised RTP
89.93%
EV $6.75 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
75.93%
5,567 openings, odds method
Variance
27.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 40
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 89.93% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (62.15% – 89.70%, 5,567 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,624 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | Crown (Foil)sticker · exotic | 1 in 40 | $253 389 gems | 93.6% | 116 | 140.6 | 0.83× |
| Sealed Graffiti | Crowngraffiti · Mythical | 17.5% | $1.29 1.98 gems | 3.3% | 974 | 984.2 | 0.99× |
| Sealed Graffiti | Little Crowngraffiti | 30.0% | $0.33 0.51 gems | 1.5% | 1,750 | 1687.2 | 1.04× |
| Sealed Graffiti | Skull n' Crosshairsgraffiti · Rare | 50.0% | $0.22 0.34 gems | 1.6% | 2,784 | 2812.0 | 0.99× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.93%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $7.51 | 89.93% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedexotic 2.5%Mythical 17.5%other 30.0%Rare 50.0%best hit —