Resolution
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$32.07
49.34 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $28.86 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.72%
1,841 openings, odds method
Variance
8.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,883 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $572 881 gems | 39.7% | 38 | 37.7 | 1.01× |
| AWP | CMYK (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $312 480 gems | 21.6% | 45 | 37.7 | 1.19× |
| AWP | Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $186 287 gems | 19.4% | 61 | 56.5 | 1.08× |
| AWP | Crakow! (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare | 1 in 33 | $88.43 136 gems | 9.2% | 49 | 56.5 | 0.87× |
| P90 | Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $25.92 39.88 gems | 4.5% | 99 | 94.2 | 1.05× |
| M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $14.33 22.04 gems | 2.5% | 108 | 94.2 | 1.15× |
| Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $6.51 10.02 gems | 2.3% | 190 | 188.3 | 1.01× |
| P250 | Visions (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink | 20.0% | $1.18 1.81 gems | 0.8% | 384 | 376.6 | 1.02× |
| Glock-18 | High Beam (Factory New)weapon · light blue | 50.0% | $0.06 0.09 gems | 0.1% | 909 | 941.5 | 0.97× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $32.07 | 89.99% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 27.0%rare 3.0%pink 20.0%light blue 50.0%best hit $572 (17.85x)