Resolutions Recoil
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$70.38
108 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $63.33 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.24%
1,573 openings, odds method
Variance
15.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,573 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)weapon · covertSleepy Jackalope$70.38108 gems$2,9804,585 gems42.35x
Latest dropsnewest first
AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red[MLP] Pinkie Pie$70.38108 gems$21.2132.63 gems0.30x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $70.38 | 89.99% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.5%classified 12.5%other 1.0%red 23.0%light blue 60.0%best hit $2,980 (42.35x)