Price
$47.55
73.15 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $42.79 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.06%
845 openings, odds method
Variance
18.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 845 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Occult (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 400 | $3,770 5,800 gems | 22.0% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.42× |
| AK-47 | B the Monster (Factory New)weapon · legendary | 1 in 400 | $798 1,228 gems | 4.7% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.42× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · gold | 1 in 200 | $569 875 gems | 6.6% | 1 | 4.2 | 0.24× |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Hand Sweaters (Minimal Wear)gloves · Immortal | 1 in 50 | $338 520 gems | 15.8% | 10 | 16.9 | 0.59× |
| AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $223 343 gems | 10.4% | 16 | 16.9 | 0.95× |
| R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $76.01 117 gems | 17.8% | 88 | 84.5 | 1.04× |
| FAMAS | Bad Trip (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon | 10.0% | $37.48 57.66 gems | 8.8% | 65 | 84.5 | 0.77× |
| P90 | Shallow Grave (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 20.0% | $21.16 32.56 gems | 9.9% | 191 | 169.0 | 1.13× |
| M4A4 | Spider Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 20.0% | $5.47 8.41 gems | 2.6% | 156 | 169.0 | 0.92× |
| MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet | 35.0% | $1.80 2.77 gems | 1.5% | 312 | 295.8 | 1.05× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $47.55 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.5%gold 0.5%Immortal 2.0%covert 12.0%uncommon 10.0%pink 20.0%violet 55.0%best hit $3,770 (79.29x)