Retired
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$45.31
69.7 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $40.77 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.20%
174 openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
35.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 217 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 1,000 | $572 880 gems | 1.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Souvenir M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial | 15.0% | $84.46 130 gems | 31.1% | 31 | 32.5 | 0.95× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 15.3% | $66.95 103 gems | 25.2% | 35 | 33.3 | 1.05× |
| M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 34.0% | $45.49 69.98 gems | 37.9% | 77 | 73.8 | 1.04× |
| Sticker | DickStacy (Foil) | Katowice 2019sticker · remarkable | 1 in 10,000 | $26.65 41 gems | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Desert Eagle | Urban DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 15.6% | $10.84 16.67 gems | 4.1% | 41 | 33.8 | 1.21× |
| Dual Berettas | Urban Shock (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff | 10.0% | $0.65 1 gems | 0.2% | 19 | 21.7 | 0.88× |
| Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 10.0% | $0.51 0.78 gems | 0.1% | 14 | 21.7 | 0.65× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$45.3169.7 gems$84.46130 gems1.86x
Souvenir M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$45.3169.7 gems$84.46130 gems1.86x
Souvenir M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrialArmands Miesnieks$45.3169.7 gems$84.46130 gems1.86x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $45.31 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 0.1%industrial 30.6%covert 15.3%restricted 34.0%remarkable 0.0%#8847ff 10.0%#4b69ff 10.0%best hit —