Retro Vibes
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$55.61
85.56 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $50.05 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.32%
91 openings, odds method
Variance
2.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 91 openings and 13.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 91 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic | 1 in 33 | $465 715 gems | 27.8% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.10× |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $163 251 gems | 16.3% | 2 | 4.5 | 0.44× |
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Player Two (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 14 | $117 180 gems | 16.4% | 2 | 6.4 | 0.31× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 11 | $79.43 122 gems | 14.3% | 16 | 8.2 | 1.95× |
| Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Factory New)weapon · covert | 11.0% | $64.07 98.57 gems | 14.1% | 9 | 10.0 | 0.90× |
| StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff | 1 in 11 | $29.25 45 gems | 5.3% | 12 | 8.2 | 1.47× |
| StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff | 10.0% | $13.13 20.2 gems | 2.6% | 9 | 9.1 | 0.99× |
| Sticker | Old School (Lenticular)sticker · red | 17.0% | $6.18 9.5 gems | 2.1% | 17 | 15.5 | 1.10× |
| P2000 | Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink | 17.0% | $2.60 4 gems | 0.9% | 14 | 15.5 | 0.90× |
| MAC-10 | Light Box (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue | 12.0% | $0.92 1.41 gems | 0.2% | 7 | 10.9 | 0.64× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$55.6185.56 gems$79.43122 gems1.43x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertDaxo$55.6185.56 gems$79.43122 gems1.43x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $55.61 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 3.0%covert 32.0%#8847ff 19.0%red 17.0%pink 17.0%blue 12.0%best hit —