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A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7.70
11.84 gems
Advertised RTP
89.96%
EV $6.92 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.23%
5,552 openings, odds method
Variance
12.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,754 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Ursus Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 100 | $231 356 gems | 33.4% | 60 | 57.5 | 1.04× |
| FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $126 194 gems | 18.3% | 60 | 57.5 | 1.04× |
| SCAR-20 | Brass (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 100 | $63.71 98.01 gems | 9.2% | 56 | 57.5 | 0.97× |
| MP7 | Teal Blossom (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 1 in 100 | $51.23 78.81 gems | 7.4% | 66 | 57.5 | 1.15× |
| SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $28.31 43.56 gems | 4.1% | 56 | 57.5 | 0.97× |
| Galil AR | CAUTION! (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $20.01 30.79 gems | 2.9% | 53 | 57.5 | 0.92× |
| AUG | Wings (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 25 | $9.46 14.56 gems | 5.5% | 221 | 230.2 | 0.96× |
| P90 | Module (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 90.0% | $1.48 2.28 gems | 19.3% | 5,182 | 5178.6 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.96%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $7.70 | 89.96% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 1.0%classified 2.0%Mil Spec Grade 1.0%#4b69ff 1.0%restricted 1.0%mil spec 94.0%best hit —