Revolution Case
A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.10
6.3 gems
Advertised RTP
89.91%
EV $3.68 from 41 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.36%
12.1K openings, odds method
Variance
785.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 2,500
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12,123 openings and 4.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.2K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Factory New)gloves · extraordinarykiloko6$4.106.3 gems$2,9194,491 gems712.8x
★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Factory New)gloves · legendaryYoda!$4.106.3 gems$1,1541,775 gems281.7x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $4.10 | 89.91% | 41 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.2%legendary 0.1%Extraordinary 0.0%covert 0.3%Ancient 0.3%pink 2.1%classified 1.1%restricted 3.2%#8847ff 6.4%Mythical 3.2%violet 3.2%mil spec 11.4%Rare 11.4%blue 22.9%milspec 22.8%#4b69ff 11.4%best hit $9,581 (2,340x)