Rewind
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$6,156.82
9,472 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $5,541.14 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
19.89%
6 openings, odds method
Variance
2.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 6 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$6,1579,472 gems$5,9709,185 gems0.97x
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$6,1579,472 gems$5,9709,185 gems0.97x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $6,157 | 90.00% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 10.0%remarkable 40.5%high 49.5%best hit $5,970 (0.97x)