Rhyme or Reason
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$257.60
396 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $231.84 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
64.96%
1,138 openings, odds method
Variance
53.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 200
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
94.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,166 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable | 1 in 200 | $26.3K 40,500 gems | 56.8% | 3 | 5.8 | 0.51× |
| Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014sticker · high | 1 in 40 | $2,072 3,188 gems | 22.3% | 31 | 29.2 | 1.06× |
| ★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 33 | $1,000 1,538 gems | 12.9% | 29 | 35.0 | 0.83× |
| Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 25 | $180 277 gems | 3.1% | 46 | 46.6 | 0.99× |
| StatTrak™ Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $78.99 122 gems | 1.7% | 50 | 58.3 | 0.86× |
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Decimator (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 17 | $45.45 69.93 gems | 1.2% | 68 | 70.0 | 0.97× |
| MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 14 | $10.72 16.49 gems | 0.3% | 91 | 81.6 | 1.11× |
| MP9 | Music Box (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 17.0% | $8.03 12.35 gems | 0.6% | 206 | 198.2 | 1.04× |
| USP-S | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 20.0% | $6.83 10.5 gems | 0.6% | 221 | 233.2 | 0.95× |
| MP7 | Neon Ply (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 35.0% | $3.06 4.7 gems | 0.5% | 421 | 408.1 | 1.03× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$258396 gems$26.3K40,500 gems102.2x
Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$258396 gems$26.3K40,500 gems102.2x
Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$258396 gems$26.3K40,500 gems102.2x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Decimator (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedCODE SEXYBOOM / 20K LB$258396 gems$45.4569.93 gems0.18x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $258 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedremarkable 0.5%high 2.5%covert 23.0%restricted 39.0%classified 18.0%mil spec 17.0%best hit $26.3K (102.2x)