RING OF FIRE

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$37.95
58.38 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $34.15 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
76.01%
1,378 openings, odds method
Variance
15.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
88 openings · below min
7 days
73.51%±22.601,128 openings
30 days
76.01%±20.451,378 openings
since tracking started
76.01%±20.451,378 openings
-0.5%68.8%138.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h8856.57%±80.9—odds
7d1,12873.51%±22.6−1.4σodds
30d1,37876.01%±20.4−1.3σodds
All1,37876.01%±20.4−1.3σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,378 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 100$1,378 2,120 gems40.4%813.80.58×
Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare1 in 50$349 538 gems20.5%2827.61.02×
AUG | Flame Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 33$186 287 gems16.4%4641.31.11×
AWP | Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 25$74.75 115 gems8.8%4955.10.89×
M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 20$25.49 39.21 gems3.7%7568.91.09×
P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New)weapon · covert10.0%$12.53 19.28 gems3.7%134137.80.97×
XM1014 | Blaze Orange (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec10.0%$8.50 13.07 gems2.5%147137.81.07×
SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert10.0%$5.97 9.18 gems1.7%120137.80.87×
MP9 | Setting Sun (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec10.0%$3.92 6.03 gems1.1%131137.80.95×
Sticker | Firestarter (Holo)sticker · Rare10.0%$2.48 3.81 gems0.7%140137.81.02×
MAC-10 | Heat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff10.0%$1.63 2.51 gems0.5%155137.81.12×
Five-SeveN | Flame Test (Factory New)weapon · milspec25.0%$0.08 0.13 gems0.1%345344.51.00×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 00:07 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert$37.9558.38 gems$1,3782,120 gems36.31x
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covertLokiI$37.9558.38 gems$1,3782,120 gems36.31x
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert$37.9558.38 gems$1,3782,120 gems36.31x
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert$37.9558.38 gems$1,3782,120 gems36.31x
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert$37.9558.38 gems$1,3782,120 gems36.31x
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert$37.9558.38 gems$1,3782,120 gems36.31x
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert$37.9558.38 gems$1,3782,120 gems36.31x

Latest dropsnewest first

Sticker | Firestarter (Holo)sticker · Rare$37.9558.38 gems$2.483.81 gems0.07x
XM1014 | Blaze Orange (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$37.9558.38 gems$8.5013.07 gems0.22x
Five-SeveN | Flame Test (Factory New)weapon · milspec$37.9558.38 gems$0.080.13 gems0.00x
M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$37.9558.38 gems$25.4939.21 gems0.67x
Five-SeveN | Flame Test (Factory New)weapon · milspec$37.9558.38 gems$0.080.13 gems0.00x
MAC-10 | Heat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff$37.9558.38 gems$1.632.51 gems0.04x
XM1014 | Blaze Orange (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$37.9558.38 gems$8.5013.07 gems0.22x
Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare$37.9558.38 gems$349538 gems9.21x
M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$37.9558.38 gems$25.4939.21 gems0.67x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC$37.9589.99%12
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 25.0%rare 2.0%restricted 3.0%classified 5.0%mil spec 20.0%Rare 10.0%#8847ff 10.0%milspec 25.0%best hit $1,378 (36.31x)