Risk Ritual
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$13.19
20.29 gems
Advertised RTP
89.96%
EV $11.86 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.99%
2,262 openings, odds method
Variance
7.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,302 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $309 475 gems | 26.0% | 24 | 23.0 | 1.04× |
| ★ Kukri Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · Immortal | 1 in 50 | $112 173 gems | 18.9% | 50 | 46.0 | 1.09× |
| SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $60.62 93.26 gems | 10.2% | 36 | 46.0 | 0.78× |
| AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 10.0% | $22.29 34.3 gems | 18.8% | 252 | 230.2 | 1.09× |
| Galil AR | Dusk Ruins (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $12.12 18.64 gems | 10.2% | 220 | 230.2 | 0.96× |
| AUG | Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical | 15.0% | $6.08 9.36 gems | 7.7% | 340 | 345.3 | 0.98× |
| SG 553 | Darkwing (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $4.00 6.15 gems | 5.1% | 347 | 345.3 | 1.00× |
| MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $1.57 2.41 gems | 2.0% | 320 | 345.3 | 0.93× |
| Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet | 15.0% | $0.76 1.17 gems | 1.0% | 331 | 345.3 | 0.96× |
| MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue | 15.0% | $0.12 0.19 gems | 0.2% | 382 | 345.3 | 1.11× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.96%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $13.19 | 89.96% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 1.0%Immortal 2.0%covert 2.0%Mythical 25.0%mil spec 10.0%restricted 30.0%violet 15.0%blue 15.0%best hit —