RNG God

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$66.18
102 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $59.55 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.31%
3,520 openings, odds method
Variance
62.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
96.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
99.26%±62.38613 openings
7 days
74.03%±28.013,041 openings
30 days
84.31%±26.033,520 openings
since tracking started
84.31%±26.033,520 openings
36.0%99.3%162.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h61399.26%±62.4+0.3σodds
7d3,04174.03%±28.0−1.1σodds
30d3,52084.31%±26.0−0.4σodds
All3,52084.31%±26.0−0.4σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,528 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
EMS Katowice 2014 Legendsother · base1 in 1,000$14K 21,594 gems23.6%43.51.13×
DreamHack 2014 Cobblestone Souvenir Packagecontainer · base1 in 1,000$7,735 11,900 gems13.0%33.50.85×
Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014sticker · high1 in 667$2,170 3,338 gems5.5%35.30.57×
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 667$1,417 2,180 gems3.6%25.30.38×
AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 200$933 1,435 gems7.8%1517.60.85×
M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 100$467 718 gems7.8%2335.30.65×
★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · gold1 in 100$367 565 gems6.2%4035.31.13×
★ Skeleton Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · gold1 in 100$139 214 gems2.3%3635.31.02×
USP-S | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · red1 in 100$61.93 95.27 gems1.0%4335.31.22×
Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Field-Tested)weapon · red40.0%$30.62 47.11 gems20.6%1,3791411.20.98×
Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Factory New)weapon · restricted55.0%$9.35 14.38 gems8.6%1,9801940.41.02×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

EMS Katowice 2014 Legendsother · base$66.18102 gems$14K21,594 gems212.1x
EMS Katowice 2014 Legendsother · base$66.18102 gems$14K21,594 gems212.1x
EMS Katowice 2014 Legendsother · base$66.18102 gems$14K21,594 gems212.1x
EMS Katowice 2014 Legendsother · base$66.18102 gems$14K21,594 gems212.1x
DreamHack 2014 Cobblestone Souvenir Packagecontainer · base$66.18102 gems$7,73511,900 gems116.9x
DreamHack 2014 Cobblestone Souvenir Packagecontainer · base$66.18102 gems$7,73511,900 gems116.9x
DreamHack 2014 Cobblestone Souvenir Packagecontainer · base$66.18102 gems$7,73511,900 gems116.9x
Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014sticker · high$66.18102 gems$2,1703,338 gems32.79x
Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014sticker · highMpiXelss$66.18102 gems$2,1703,338 gems32.79x
Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014sticker · high$66.18102 gems$2,1703,338 gems32.79x

Latest dropsnewest first

Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Factory New)weapon · restricted$66.18102 gems$9.3514.38 gems0.14x
Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Field-Tested)weapon · red$66.18102 gems$30.6247.11 gems0.46x
Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Field-Tested)weapon · red$66.18102 gems$30.6247.11 gems0.46x
Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Factory New)weapon · restricted$66.18102 gems$9.3514.38 gems0.14x
Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Factory New)weapon · restricted$66.18102 gems$9.3514.38 gems0.14x
Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Factory New)weapon · restricted$66.18102 gems$9.3514.38 gems0.14x
Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Factory New)weapon · restricted$66.18102 gems$9.3514.38 gems0.14x
Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Field-Tested)weapon · red$66.18102 gems$30.6247.11 gems0.46x
Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Factory New)weapon · restricted$66.18102 gems$9.3514.38 gems0.14x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 01:59 UTC$66.1889.99%11
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbase 0.2%high 0.1%covert 1.7%gold 2.0%red 41.0%restricted 55.0%best hit $14K (212.1x)